Every Survivor 50 Player’s Path to Victory

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[00:01:29] We're finally here.

[00:01:39] We're finally here. It is the final seven of Survivor 50 and the big finale is coming up in just one week's time. And so I thought that this would be a very fun moment to be able to go through and try to outline the paths to victory for each of the final seven players remaining.

[00:02:00] Now, there's a lot of speculation in how this is all going to go. We're going to presume that this is going to be normal Survivor from here on out. And God knows that is a hell of an assumption here in Survivor 50. But from here where we are at the final seven to get to a winner, I'm going to outline the paths that every single player left in the game can take to maximize their chances to win.

[00:02:27] And I have a very fun way of doing this that I'm very excited to show you. But first, this episode of the podcast is sponsored by the book, The Tribe and I Have Spoken. You're watching a video about Survivor. It's a book about Survivor. It's perfect. It's meant for you. Check out robinsbook.com. All right. Let's get to what you wanted to hear me talk about and check this out. Okay. We are going to do something here that I've never done before.

[00:02:53] And I've put together a whiteboard. If you're listening to the podcast version of this, come check it out on the YouTube channel. I have tried to put together a digital illustration of where everybody is. And I'm going to go through the seven players left in the game. And I want to go through the best chances of win to the worst.

[00:03:17] And the player that I think that has the best chance to win Survivor 50 is none other than Queen, Sari Fields. Now, Sari is in a bit of trouble after last week. She lost a huge shield in Ozzy. And so she definitely has her work cut out for her going into the final seven. But I definitely think that she has the most likely chance to win, considering that if she gets to the final three, I believe she is unimpeachable in the final three.

[00:03:46] Although she does have some obstacles to overcome in order of getting there. And I think that a big key for Sari is making sure that the person that I think is the most likely to get voted out at the final seven is none other than Rick Devins. And Rick Devins has been a thorn in the side to many people during the course of this season. His ally, Emily Flippen, just got voted out at the last Tribal Council.

[00:04:14] And I think that Rick is kind of a juicy target here at the final seven, considering the fact that he has no idol and he has been somebody that I think is overdue to have gone out of the game. But I think it's really important for Sari to keep at least another big target out there ahead of her.

[00:04:35] Because when you take a look at these numbers, that in order to get Sari out, you need some combination of Rick Devins working with these other guys to potentially take out Sari. And I don't see that happening. So while I think there might be a temptation, okay, Rick is the easy vote at the final seven. I think the longer that Sari keeps Rick out there as a shield in front of her, I think that that is actually a good thing.

[00:05:02] Because as long as Rick is in the game, there's less of a chance that him and Joe are going to work together to get out Sari. So I think that actually the best target in the game for Sari, I think is going to be Jonathan. Because if Sari can take Jonathan out of the picture, and we'll get to Jonathan in just a moment and how he can win the game. I think that taking Jonathan out of the picture ends up making a scenario where we know Tiffany is sticking with Sari.

[00:05:31] Now that these other people that are going along, I think that Jonathan in a lot of ways is going to be the person that might be able to best be able to bring people together against Sari. So Rizzo doesn't have too many other places to go. Joe's not going to work with Rick Devins. I think he's going to stick with Sari and Tiffany. And so you start to assemble a group that could potentially get to the end with Sari. She still has an obstacle to overcome.

[00:05:59] And Aubrey, we know they have the relationship from Game Changers, even though we haven't seen them work together too much in this season. So I think there are still a number of people that would want to work with Sari. And I think that if Jonathan is out of the picture, I think that a lot of these other players don't really have any other better groups to go with other than working with Sari. So that gets Sari closer to the end of the game. The other big hurdle for Sari is going to be getting through the Final Four.

[00:06:28] Now, the path for Sari is that the fans voted in that there's a vote at the Final Four. And I think that I like Sari's chances in terms of there being a vote that she could potentially get through as opposed to having her go into fire, which she has had to do in both Survivor Panama and also in Survivor fans Australia versus the world.

[00:06:55] So two different times that has been where Sari has ended up running into a problem. So hopefully she can get through that with a vote. She gets to the end. She wins. I think that that's kind of cut and dry. Not to say that it is going to be easy, but that's the path for Sari. I do think the player that has the second best chance to win is the person that I thought that it was important for Sari to try to get rid of this week. And that is going to be Jonathan.

[00:07:25] I think I really wrestled over who I thought had the second best chance to win. I do think it's Jonathan. I think that he's played a really strong game throughout, no pun intended, a very strong game from Jonathan all throughout the season. I think he has a lot of friends in the jury. When we take a look at the people that have been put onto the jury, I know that there was a conversation that him and Chrissy had earlier in the season of, hey, these people, Camilla's not going to vote for you.

[00:07:53] But I think that he has a lot of friends on the jury who will vote for him in Coach, in Chrissy, in Stephanie. I think that he did good jury management with Ozzy, who came out of the game not so angry with Jonathan. I believe it's an 11-person jury. So for Jonathan to win a flat-out majority, he needs to get to six.

[00:08:14] But I do see a scenario where you could have five and there could be a three and a three, even though the jury votes tend to get a little lopsided. So I think that Jonathan can squeeze out another vote, especially if Joe is on the jury. Maybe a Rizzo. Is it possible him and Aubrey have had a connection? So as long as he's not up against Sari, I think that there are paths for Jonathan to win here going down the stretch.

[00:08:41] And I think that that path to victory for Jonathan does start with potentially— We said that it was important for Sarie to get out Rick Devins. I think that for Jonathan, I think that taking Rick out of the picture might not be a bad move for him at the final seven. Because if Rick is gone, all of a sudden you have Tiffany and Sarie who are a pretty obvious pair.

[00:09:08] I think it starts to make a lot of sense where that, hey, like we're not going to beat Sarie. Rizzo, we've seen him defect from Ozzy. It certainly is starting to be possible that we could see this group coming together to potentially vote out Sarie. So Sarie starts to get outnumbered. I think if Rick is out of the picture, it makes it easy for everybody to say, hey, we're not going to beat Sarie. And I think that Jonathan is the person who could try to put something together.

[00:09:36] We saw him talking with Dee earlier in the season that he said, hey, watch out for Sarie. That she's going to be the person who she makes you feel good about her. So I could see Jonathan leading some sort of a charge against Sarie. I mean, it could potentially come as early as this next round at the final seven. But then when Rick Devins is in the picture, are you going to get Rick Devins and Joe on the same page? And so I think it's kind of important for Jonathan to take Rick out of the picture first.

[00:10:05] And then he can go ahead and take a shot at Sarie at the final six. And then ultimately at the final five, I still think he's situated pretty well. I mean, we've seen that Tiffany and Joe have had a relationship. But I think that Joe ultimately ends up sticking with Jonathan. And so this maybe for some would not be a very exciting outcome of the season.

[00:10:32] But I definitely see that that being one of the paths this season could take. And I think that Jonathan has really talked about his game in very strategic ways. And I think that Jonathan could do well in a final tribal council, especially against some of the likes of the other players who have not played as big of a game as Jonathan has. Now, for the player that is the third most likely to win the game,

[00:10:59] I do think that this is a tale of there being three underdogs in the season. And the three underdogs are Aubrey, Tiffany, and Rick. And the three underdogs have played different types of underdog games. If you ask me. Obviously, Rick has played the flashier underdog game where he's playing idols. He is making people mad.

[00:11:26] He's flipping the Mr. Beast coin and certainly playing the biggest game of the three underdogs. You have Tiffany, who is just so well-liked and well-regarded by everybody. She was on the bottom because of the circumstances. But other than Coach, really, everybody loves Tiffany. Nobody wants to write her name down. You find her next to Sari all the time. And people really enjoy being around Tiffany. And her social game has really been the thing that has helped her the most.

[00:11:55] And then you have Aubrey, who's kind of playing a under-the-radar strategic game where she is making some moves. But a lot of the moves that she's making, she's telling us about. It doesn't seem like anybody is really paying too much of attention to what Aubrey is doing. But it does seem like that she is doing some maneuvering behind the scenes.

[00:12:17] And so you have the advantage player, the social player, and sort of an under-the-radar strategic player in these three underdog stories. But I think that the person with the best chance to win out of these three, I think it's Rick. Because I think that Rick has the advantage of, if he gets to the end, I think that Rick can tell a story about how he was the obvious underdog. Everybody counted him out.

[00:12:43] And while I think he did piss some people off, I think that usually people on the jury tend to enjoy Rick's game. You have Christian on the jury. You have Emily on the jury. I think that you have D would, I think, vote for Rick Devins, unless he was up against Tiffany. I think that there are votes for Rick. And especially if he could stand there and sort of like pound his chest and talk about like the things that he did.

[00:13:09] I think that Rick has a really strong case to make. But how does Rick get to the end? I do think that for Rick, maybe the move is to try to get as far as he can with Sari and with Tiffany. Where that they don't, they've lost Ozzy last week. I think this is also a little bit of a stretch. That he's worked with Aubrey in the past.

[00:13:37] It's hard to see a real path for him. So maybe I'm regretting already that I made Rick the third most likely player to win. I just think he has a really great case to make in the final three. But I think at the final seven, if he can make a move against Jonathan, if we take Jonathan back out of the picture. And again, that was the goal that I thought that was best for Sari at the final seven.

[00:14:02] Now here, Joe is going to be, you know, wanting to get out Rick Devins. But could Joe potentially go out at the final five? I do start to feel like that if Rick Devins doesn't win immunity in this scenario, he's in trouble. So maybe for Rick, the path is keep finding idols, win some immunities, and find a way to get to the end. Could Rick Devins potentially redeem himself with making the final four fire?

[00:14:31] Wouldn't that be a nice end to Rick Devins' story if he ends up getting back to the final four fire-making challenge? And this time wins it with no Chris Underwood? That would be a really great storybook ending for Rick Devins if he could get to the final three. But let's talk about the other two underdogs that I think don't have as clear of a case against the, in the final three. And that's Tiffany and that's Aubrey.

[00:14:55] And I'm going to say, I'm going to rank Tiffany slightly ahead of Aubrey and make her the fourth most likely player to win the game. Obviously, we know that she has a ride or die in Sari. And now she has some other options. We know that Sari has had Rizzo. We don't know how Sari is going to react to Rizzo voting out Ozzy at that last vote. But we've also seen Tiffany working with Joe.

[00:15:24] So she's had an ally in Aubrey along the way. That they could go in either of the other directions. I didn't like the idea of voting out Rick Devins for Sari. And I think that for Tiffany, I think that's also a net negative where I think it's easier for Jonathan to turn people against Sari and Tiffany at that point. So I think that the move for Tiffany would be also to send Jonathan out of the game at the final six.

[00:15:52] I think then it kind of is easy to pick off Rick Devins if he's not immune. And then here at five, a lot of different options of who do Tiffany and Sari feel the best with to go with them. I mean, there is certainly the scenario where Aubrey and Rizzo and Joe work together against Tiffany and Sari.

[00:16:13] But I like Sari's chances and Tiffany by proxy to be able to keep one of these people working with them to get them to a final four scenario. And we'll see if it's going to be a vote or a fire making. And then if, and we've seen this before, for whatever reason, Sari ends up falling by the wayside around the final four, which has happened a number of times and even at the final three in Survivor Micronesia.

[00:16:41] I like Tiffany's chances against anybody else who's here. I think that she has a lot of friends on the jury, especially if Sari goes out right towards the end. I think that she would be a proxy for Sari in the final three. And so if Tiffany gets to the end with any combination of Aubrey and Joe and Rizzo, I really do like Tiffany's chances here. But let's talk about that other wild card of that is playing from the bottom here in the post-merge.

[00:17:10] And so what does a path to victory look like for Aubrey? And Aubrey is a person who has been largely forgotten about. We've seen her play from the bottom through most of the season. She had the idol that everybody knew about. She got rid of it. And now here she is. Her name is always out there, but yet here she is. And we saw her end up having strategic conversations with Jonathan last week, with Joe, with Rizzo. So she's connected to Rick.

[00:17:40] She played on Game Changers with Sari. We saw her in the pre-merge with Tiffany. So Aubrey actually has a lot of different connections that she could go forward with. And I think for Aubrey, I think that really the key for her is kind of staying out of the way. I think that there's a scenario where no matter what happens at the final seven, I think that you could argue that it could work out well for Aubrey. So we talked about the scenario where Jonathan goes out.

[00:18:07] And now all of a sudden then it makes it easier to pick off Rick Devins. And now here's Aubrey, who kind of I think would be a swing vote maybe. Now I'll talk a little bit more about it. I think that there's some connective tissue here with Joe and Rizzo. And I'll talk about more that when I get to them. But Aubrey really could be a little bit of a king or queen maker here in this scenario if she gets down to the final five.

[00:18:34] And so in a different scenario where we see, okay, could Sari, the unthinkable, could she get picked off at the final seven? I still don't think that people would be looking at Aubrey. I still think that Rick would be the other big target to go. And here's Jonathan. And is Jonathan going to try to bro down and take Joe and Rizzo to the final three? I think that they would probably go after Tiffany.

[00:19:01] And now here's Aubrey in the final four in this scenario. So I think even in the scenario where we talked about where, you know, Jonathan is out of the picture. She's got a lot of options here. If Rick goes out at the final seven, then there's also a world where Aubrey can team up with this group over here with Rizzo and Joe and Jonathan.

[00:19:26] And she gets to the final four and might be a person who the fire maker could bring Aubrey to the end. Do we know if Aubrey can make fire? I don't know if she had to. I know that did boy, I did. I think it was it Sydney and Ty who had fire in Foucault wrong. I'm sorry. I'm doing this on the fly. So I don't remember if Aubrey had to make fire. I'm sure that the commenters will let me know as you are going through watching this.

[00:19:54] So there's a lot of good scenarios for Aubrey where nobody ends up targeting her. And I think that Aubrey, who's somebody who's been to a final tribal council, I think that while she does not have a very flashy resume, she does have a great story to tell about how she was disregarded and how she was working from the bottom and how everybody thought she should have won Corong.

[00:20:18] But they ended up saying that they liked Michelle better and here she is and she's playing again for the fourth time and she didn't know she wanted to come back. And so here she is and she's played this game and she'll tell us that she's a psycho and she played hard and never gave up. And I think that that is the type of thing that could really move some jurors. And Aubrey has played a game where outside of really Genevieve and her Genevieve's tribe that Aubrey has been pretty well liked throughout the season.

[00:20:46] And the funny thing is, is that the tribe that Genevieve started on has been kind of cursed throughout the whole way, where I think that Stephanie is the only person that's left and Rizzo that have made the jury from that group. So the group that initially was not really vibing with Aubrey, like all those people are gone.

[00:21:10] But Genevieve and Colby and Q, not to say that Kyle was in that group, Angelina, who was Aubrey's friend. But the people who had an issue with Aubrey are all gone. And so we could see a scenario for Aubrey where she gets to the end and has a really good shot at this thing. I think that the final three pairing that I like the most for Aubrey is Aubrey and Rizzo and Joe.

[00:21:37] I think in that scenario, I think that there's a lot of people who don't feel like that Joe is playing the type of game they want to see rewarded in Survivor 50. People, I think that they like Rizzo, but maybe don't want to see him win Survivor 50. And so if Aubrey ends up at the end of the game with Rizzo and Joe, I really like that as a winning path for Aubrey.

[00:22:02] And who knows, along the way, maybe she ends up being the person responsible for getting out some of these players who are the bigger threats to win. The top four threats to win that I had in my book in Rick and Sari and Tiffany and Jonathan. Maybe if she ends up putting a few notches on her belt along the way, it ends up being a lot of fuel for her going into the final three. So that leaves two other people to talk about. We have Rizzo and we have Joe.

[00:22:31] I'm going to say that I think that Rizzo has the sixth best chance to win the game. And I think it's going to be a tough one. I think that Rizzo actually has a really good chance to get to the final three. But Rizzo has an uphill battle no matter what he's doing. Initially, I thought that Rizzo did not have a great chance to win. You know, listen, I was a Riz God doubter every step of the way in Survivor 50. And he's proved me wrong at every single turn.

[00:22:58] And so here's the opportunity for him to ultimately really prove me wrong on this one. Because I thought he would come into the game. I did not think that he would really be accepted by the other players. I was dead wrong about that. He's done a great job. And I thought that maybe they wouldn't give him the win in terms of him being a younger guy, not necessarily a family person. I don't know if that's exactly going to be it.

[00:23:25] But I just it's hard to imagine the scenario where if he sits with any of these other players, I don't think he has the votes in the final three. And it could be for a variety of reasons, whether he's too young, whether it's that they don't really know him like that. You've heard a lot of the jurors bashing him to some degree, specifically Ozzy this week, but also Stephanie. Chrissy didn't have all the nicest things to say about Rizzo.

[00:23:52] Coach wasn't particularly high about him in his exit interviews. In fairness to Rizzo, he's played Survivor at this point. I think it's what, day 22 in the game. And so he has played Survivor for, what, 47 of the last 56 days, which is not really what humans are supposed to be doing. The guy is really wearing down. And I think that he is a little weak.

[00:24:20] I don't think that in the best of days for Rizgod, he was winning challenges. And so I think that that's also going to be a little bit of an obstacle to overcome. And so I think that for him, it's going to be a challenge to find a combination to win the game. I do think that he has a good chance to make it through because at the final seven, no matter what happens, I've talked about some of these likelier scenarios where if they get rid of Jonathan, you know, he's back.

[00:24:48] He's going to try to maybe bring return back to Ceri's Wizard of Tiffany, maybe where, okay, I'm back with Ceri. We're working with Tiffany and we've got a good group together where we could potentially take out Rick Devins after that. And if he's still back with Ceri, he could be a bit of a swing vote where we talked about him working with Joe and Aubrey against Ceri or sticking with Ceri and riding this thing all the way to the end.

[00:25:17] It's just, I don't see a real winning scenario for Rizzo, even though he has done extremely well and much better than I anticipated. And then the player that I think has the seventh best chance to win, it's Joe. And I don't think that Joe has a chance to win this game. And it's so interesting.

[00:25:39] I was thinking about this earlier today that a year ago, I sat here on this podcast and again, wrongly told you that if Joe gets to the end, Joe will win the game. I was so sure in Survivor 48. I said, hey, this is Joe's game. We've seen Joe dominate this entire thing. If Joe gets to the end, he's going to win the game.

[00:26:04] It will be impossible for Kyle to go to the end with Joe and say, I should win the game. And not only did Kyle win the game, I think he got five votes to Joe get one. And so I think that they're close in that. That could have been an edit that was a little lopsided where it was like, hey, we know Joe is coming back. We definitely want to give Joe a good edit. I could be just as wrong here. Maybe that this is the scenario where I'm watching Joe all season.

[00:26:33] There's no way Joe can win and then watch him win the game and then completely prove me wrong again on this. But I do feel like that we've seen a much different story from Joe. And the story that we're being told about Joe is that people have had to babysit him. He's a problem that people are having to work around. They don't respect the game he's playing. Not to say anything that he's a bad person in any sort of way.

[00:27:00] But for whatever reason, the players that are there, they are not playing the game the same way that he is. And they're not seeing the board the same way he is. And it's been that way since the start of the season. And so it's really you struggle to come up with what is the scenario for Joe? And I guess that maybe you say like, well, he does have some friends that are on the jury in Coach and Chrissy.

[00:27:28] But then you get to Stephanie and Stephanie really wasn't that high on Joe in the exit press. And so it's really a struggle to imagine where are the votes coming from? Perhaps Joe goes on an immunity run from here on out. And I did say in the preseason, I thought Joe's best path to victory was to get to the end as sort of the last person left from his alliance and win a bunch of challenges at the end.

[00:27:57] And be kind of the underdog that is being seen as the person who's, you know, sticking it to the power players in the game. And I guess maybe you could squint and kind of see that as an outcome for Joe if he goes on an immunity run and makes the fire. But I don't see that for Joe. And I think that the interesting thing here for me is Joe and Rizzo.

[00:28:24] I'm starting to look at these two potentially as a pair. This was a theme that we've seen over a few episodes recently, most recently in the Aussie vote where Rizzo said, you need to include Joe. I believe actually that happened in the vote where Coach was going to get voted out, where they were going to blindside Joe and take out Coach.

[00:28:48] And Rizzo was the one saying like, hey, we need to tell Joe about what's going on. Joe won't like it. And then we also had in this past episode where Joe was saying, hey, we need to tell Rizzo the plan. He went to Jonathan and said, hey, we need to tell Rizzo about the plan.

[00:29:11] And so Jonathan went and asked Sari, hey, could we, Joe wants to tell Rizzo about the Aussie vote. What do you think? Can we do this? And she's like, yeah, sure. Tell him. I was then pointed to a secret scene from, it was in episode six when all the players were at the merge beach.

[00:29:33] And there was a moment where Rizzo confided in Joe and Rizzo talked about how he has a brother who's autistic. And the moment with Joe and Eva was so moving for Rizzo and his family. And Rizzo was crying and he was telling Joe about how much that meant to him. I think there's a bond that we haven't really seen too much between Joe and Rizzo. And are they ultimately rider dies in the game? I don't think so. But I think that there's a respect level.

[00:30:01] We know that Joe likes to be a mentor. Rizzo is always looking for a father figure on Survivor. He looked at it with Nate in Survivor 49. He had it with Colby. I do feel like that there is a bond here between these two. And I'm starting to wonder if they are moving through the game. And I think that you could see them as Rizzo maybe is not going to be as tight with Sari moving forward.

[00:30:30] Again, maybe they patch things up. But I think that Sari is not going to love what happened with Aussie. And I wonder if Rizzo is drifting a little bit more towards Joe. And Rizzo, maybe with a really accurate perception of how he's being viewed and having a lot of self-awareness, might think that, hey, my best chance to win in the game. Well, what chance do I have to win next to Sari?

[00:30:57] But if I want to be that legend that I've been talking about for two seasons, part of my answer is going to be sitting next to Joe in the final three. So I do think that maybe we're going to see a shift of Rizzo trying to get to the end with Joe. The problem for Rizzo is that it's not a final two. If this was a final two of Rizzo versus Joe, I'd like his chances.

[00:31:21] But it's a final three, and I can't find a person to be next to them that's going to end up being a final travel council loser to Rizzo and Joe. I think all of the other five players beat them. But I think it's smart for Rizzo to partner up with Joe and potentially go to the end. Look, that's how I see it going into the final seven. I'm sure I will be incredibly wrong about most of what I said.

[00:31:51] What if I'm not? Obviously, one of these seven people will win, and maybe they will do it in the way that I told you about here today. And we can go back to this video and declare victory of the time that I predicted how that player would go on to win Survivor 50. I can't believe Survivor 50 is wrapping up. I've had so much fun covering this season, and I have had the best time talking about it here with you.

[00:32:18] I really had a lot of fun also with this format, and I hope to be able to bring it into more podcasts in the future. So thank you so much for joining me along the way. If you haven't checked out The Tribe and I have spoken yet, it is available in both hardcover and audiobook, where I do plenty of impressions of all of the Survivors along the way. So thank you for joining us. I'll be back with Stephen Fishback for Survivor Know-It-All's live after the episode on Wednesday night. Take care, everybody. Have a good one.

[00:32:48] Bye. We all love Survivor. And in my first ever book, The Tribe and I have spoken, I'll tell you how this little show evolved from that juggernaut first season on the beaches of Borneo all the way into its landmark 50th season. I'm like a storyteller. That's what I do.

[00:33:12] What role did the greatest players, the unforgettable moments, and Jeff Probst himself have in shaping what Survivor has become today? And what contribution did we play in building this worldwide tribe of Survivor fans? Love you, bae. For you future players, I've also included my ultimate Survivor playbook to help you win the million dollars, unlike me. It's fun. You know what, dude? It's fun.

[00:33:36] This hardcover edition is filled with beautiful Survivor illustrations in every chapter and is an amazing addition for every Survivor collector. I'm a meat collector. Pre-orders are everything for a book launch, so to say thank you to everyone who pre-orders, you'll receive an exclusive digital bonus chapter called The Ultimate Rites of Passage. My personal tribute to all the players who have ever competed on the show. All 751. This is huge.

[00:34:07] I needed this. Pre-order wherever books are sold in hardcover and as an audiobook at robhasabook.com. That's robhasabook.com. Nicely done, Rob.